BOOK
REVIEW Future
shock The Writing on the Wall. India
Checkmates America 2017 by S
Padmanabhan
Reviewed by Chanakya Sen
In a February 2004 joint combat exercise of
the US and Indian Air Forces held in Gwalior,
American F15C planes were defeated nine out of
10 times by Indian pilots flying Russian-made
SU30Ks and MIG-21s. This set the cat among the
strategic community pigeons, who inferred that
a developing country with skills and equipment
can stave off the mightiest. Former Indian
army chief General
Padmanabhan's elucidation of US-India conflict
buttresses the case. The short war results in
hasty retreat of the superpower, which faces a
prepared and vigilant India.
The curtain raises in April 2003. Despite
differing institutional perspectives on
responding to the US invasion of Iraq,
strategists concur that India could become a
future object of US military whims. New
Delhi's aversion to providing troops for the
US-led stabilization force in Iraq and
Washington's strong tilt towards Pakistan
appear to be a casus belli. The Indian
defense minister asks his service chiefs how
asymmetrical and unequal wars, increasingly
commonplace in the unipolar word, can be
fought and won. He asks for detailed plans
with 15 years lead time "to resist the
USA if she turns rogue (p 27)."
A draft National Security Policy (NSP) is
mooted, projecting a long-term defense outlay
of 3.5% of India's gross domestic product. It
prioritizes a new defense shield to intercept
ballistic and cruise missiles over and around
India as well as nano-chip integrated machines
with artificial intelligence. NSP is guided by
the reasoning that "in a unipolar world,
the more friends one has, the greater one's
security" (p 31). A strategic partnership
with China is the centerpiece of this
diplomatic coalition-building. On internal
security, dialogues would be opened with
misguided elements for settlement. In the
Kashmir Valley, Indian army training and
lessons learnt are to be improved for tackling
mujahideen terrorism.
Meanwhile, the Pakistan president orders
urgent strikes in Kashmir to pacify the
religious parties raising the banner of revolt
against him. The Inter-Services Intelligence
hands jihadi groups a target list and
timetable. Soft spots like the Vaishno Devi
temple in Jammu and a civilian bus in Doda are
identified. The bosses demand night vision
devices and money to finish the job. Incidents
of terrorist violence rocket in mid-2003, but
India's announcement of sending an unmanned
spacecraft to the moon before 2008 injects
buoyancy into the national mood and sets
tongues wagging on security implications for
industrialized countries. India's decision to
form a strategic block with China, Brazil,
Mexico etc at the World Trade Organization
Cancun meet also raises eyebrows.
By early 2004, the Chinese send signals to
Delhi that "they regard us as a staunch
opponent of US hegemonism" (p 76) .
Towards the end of that year, Pakistan attacks
the Naushera-Poonch-Rajauri sectors of Jammu
and Kashmir. In counter-attacks, India seizes
strategically valuable territory in Pakistan.
The US demands an Indian pull-back, which is
not complied with. As a US-India collision
seems possible, Indian politicians close ranks
and form a government of national unity.
Though the US Seventh Fleet enters the Indian
Ocean, the crisis tides over, but not without
presaging what is to come.
The new government passes a multi-partisan
national agenda with clear-cut policies
towards separatist movements, culminating in
peace accords in Nagaland, Manipur and Assam
by 2008. Left-wing extremism also dies out
with more just distribution of resources.
In late 2007, the Vietnamese UN secretary
general proclaims expansion of the Security
Council to admit India, Brazil and South
Africa and reiterates that the UN is the only
acceptable hope for all nations to retain
their unique nationhood and integrity. India
undergoes a significant accretion to its
national power that the world observes and
takes note of. Less developed countries
increasingly look up to India for assistance.
with the view that a "new and highly
benign power had arrived to help others grow
(p 126)."
In 2009, China proposes an Asian Security
Environment (ASE) comprising Russia, India,
Iran, Vietnam and the Central Asian Republics,
provoking nightmares in Washington. The US
ambassador in Islamabad tells the Pakistani
president, "You, as a friend of both the
USA and China must stop this happening (p
109)." Pakistan and the US see convergent
interests in containing the "China-India
axis", demonstrated when a terrorist
attack in Jammu in 2010 is condemned in
Beijing and wholehearted support is extended
to India to take retaliatory action on
Pakistan.
India's missile defense project Vajra is
successfully tested in early 2010 as per
schedule, thanks to red tape and
corruption-free defense deals. Association of
users into weapons development processes by
integrating Indian army, navy and air force
officers with scientists yields manifold
positives.
As the ASE approaches inauguration, the US
senses a new military alliance more powerful
than the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
and decides to take covert and overt measures
to prevent its opening. Diplomatic pressures
through itinerant officials are used to sow
dissension among member states. Restrictive
trade practices are introduced against
participant states. To "bring India to
its senses", the US steps up military aid
to Pakistan, playing the old card of balance
of power in South Asia. Undeterred, ASE
agreements come into place by the end of 2015,
by which time India is substantially ready for
major conflict.
In April 2015, Syed Salahuddin, the supreme
commander of the Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM)
terrorist outfit under house arrest in
Pakistan is brought back to India through a
bloodless intrigue. He disbands HM. Pakistani
intelligence gathers that more jihadis active
in Kashmir are contemplating surrender. In
high dudgeon, the Pakistani president enjoins
a debilitating strike at the Jammu and Kashmir
government's convoy shifting to the summer
capital Srinagar. Over 80 persons are killed
and 134 wounded. India's retribution destroys
the Muridke headquarters and Kotli office
complex of Lashkar-i-Tayyaba by aerial
bombing, killing its leader Hafeez Muhammad
Sayeed. A prominent jihadi madrassa
(seminary) is destroyed and the new director
general of the Inter-Services Intelligence is
assassinated swiftly.
Pakistan's military ruler desperately turns to
the US for a formal treaty alliance with
Taiwan, Japan and South Korea. The US
president nods saying, "I expect you to
keep the Indians so busy that they do not have
time to finalize the Asian Security
Environment (p 202)." An advisory group
from the US Special Operations Command works
in tandem with Pakistan to sabotage Indian
nerve centers.
In March 2016, an Indian commercial ship is
sunk by Pakistani naval forces released from
duty on paper. Delhi sets a time-bound
ultimatum for the saboteurs to be handed over
for trial. The US national security adviser
informs India that "if it comes to an
Indo-Pak war, we shall fight on the side of
our ally (p 219)." India withdraws the
ultimatum after the US appeals to avert war
and promises to rein in Pakistan.
Behind the scenes however, US agent
provocateurs are sent into India and other ASE
component states to engineer riots, sabotage
and to provide a last resort option of
triggering war between Pakistan and India. US
Special Forces personnel blow up the strategic
Jawahar Tunnel linking Jammu and Srinagar in
July 2017. India demands surrender of all
responsible persons in 10 days. The Pakistani
president eyes an opportunity of a lifetime in
Indo-US flare-ups and declares war against
India, with the chilling assurance, "With
the US on our side, victory is assured (p
238)."
The Pakistani armed forces suffer serious
setbacks in the war as Lahore is surrounded by
Indian troops on the first day of the war
itself. In the Oval Office, the American
president is told that unless Washington
enters the fight, its ally would be defeated
and "religious fanatics may capture power
and the bomb (p 242)." US carrier battle
groups move into the war zone to launch seven
Tomahawks at Indian high-value targets, only
to be decapitated by the Vajra missile defense
umbrella. Indian electromagnetic pulses
powered by "e-bombs" incapacitate
American phones, electric grids and computer
networks. When some Indian communication
satellites are destroyed by US action, Delhi
switches to backup satellites of allied
countries within a record 45 minutes. A UN
resolution stops the war with a unanimous
ceasefire of all permanent members of the
Security Council within two days of active
hostilities.
In Pakistan, the mullahs attempt a palace coup
using zealous sections of the army unhappy
with the setbacks against India. Indian armed
forces that make inroads come to the rescue
and save the Pakistani president, effectively
ending the war. So weakened is the latter that
he concedes control of Pakistan's nukes to US
control and lets India take the whole of Jammu
and Kashmir. The defeated general also sends
to the Indian prime minister
"far-reaching proposals that will end,
forever, our terrible relations of the last 70
years (p 266)."
Padmanabhan's forward planning idea carries
relevance at a time where there is "no
limit to which the US would not go if she
perceived even the faintest threat to her
national security (Preface)." The most
fantastic assumption of the book is the
China-India alliance, which remains
tantalizing yet unrealistic in today's lenses.
But then, as world politics is churning
rapidly, no future shock is really a shock.
Padmanabhan deserves kudos for a holistic
approach to security and an original
imagination.
The Writing on the Wall. India Checkmates
America 2017 by S Padmanabhan. Manas
Publications, New Delhi, 2004. ISBN:
81-7049-175-4. Price US$35, 300 pages.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact [email protected]
for information on our sales and syndication
policies.)
Padmanabhan's elucidation of US-India conflict
buttresses the case. The short war results in
hasty retreat of the superpower, which faces a
prepared and vigilant India.
